What are the odds?

The Kentucky Derby runs tomorrow. Hope you've done your handicapping already. If you need any serious info, go over to Daily Racing Form. They are cool enough to give you the Past Performances for the main event free of charge in PDF (with Moss Pace Figure Enhanced). It may look complicated but it is chock full of data. Just take a quick look at a definition page to see what it all means. Beyer speed numbers, times, finishes, conditions, jockey, lineage, you name it.

Anyway, let's get down to it. Looks like the weather forecast (according to The Weather Channel) is calling for 60% chance of rain (1/4 inch) and temps ranging from 65 in the morning to 75 in late afternoon. Probably not a major impact, but certainly not helping some of the speed horses.

The field is absent of the type of horse to put a fast pace up front, which may hamper some of the stalking horses. Overall, nothing super about this field. It will be fun to see who emerges.

Lot of attention on Curlin, who I'm discounting right off without a start as a 2-year-old (The last time a horse didn't run as a 2-year-old and won the Derby was 1882) only 3 career starts (The last horse to win the Derby off just three career starts was Regret, a filly, in 1915) and he's never faced a double-digit field size. I also see talk about town regarding Cowtown Cat, Circular Quay and Nobiz Like Shobiz.

I'm keeping an eye on these horses (odds from Bodog, as of this minute):

Scat Daddy (10-1): Negative talk of this being a long race for this colt and the fact that he's never posted a triple digit Beyer. He's also a stalker and if the pace is slow and the field bunched, it could pose issues. However, he has the ability to avoid trouble with situational speed. I happen to like the 5-week layoff (same as Barbaro), the fact that his last run was winning the Florida Derby and Prado astride him.

Tiago (15-1): Santa Anita winner, where he posted a 100 Beyer. Only 4 career starts, but one as a two-year-old. Half-brother of 2004 winner Giacomo, which is enough for me to give him a look. Another stalker. Smith at the reigns brings experience.

Dominican (20-1): Bit of a long shot, lots of things working against him. Been slow late in races and hasn't run well on dirt, having run mostly PolyTrack. No triple-digit Beyers. However, last two races looked good, including a win at Blue Grass over Street Sense and Zanjero, and has posted a good 5-furlong bullet on 4/29. Looks ready to make a push. As long as the odds stay longish, I'll take a shot with this one.

The mighty Bulls tip off against the Pistons Saturday night and I really want to throw a few bucks on Bwana Bull for the hell of it, but I might as well just burn the cash. Bwaba Bull is greatly outclassed here.

As always, I would tell you the winner if I knew. Unfortunately, the universe has not seen fit to give me precognition. As such, I'm reduced to playing spin the bottle with painted horse figurines and making up pompous sounding analysis, complete with horsey lingo, to explain my selections.

Good luck, ladies and gents. The sun shines bright in the old Kentucky home.....